URGENT:
MEMORANDUM FOR FOREIGN
POLICY STAFF
MEMBER/ PLEASE DELIVER IMMEDIATELY
SUBJECT:
REQUEST FOR LEGISLATION, AFGHANISTAN
FROM:
Ralph Lopez, Afghan Marshall Plan Stabilization and Exit Strategy
Project,
(full in-office presentation upon request.)
Afghan Marshall Plan Stabilization and
Exit
Strategy
Stabilizing
Afghanistan
Through Civilian Assistance to Poorest Sector
Summary
·
A
cash-for-work jobs program aimed at those most at-risk for joining the
Taliban
is President Obama's only course for creating an option for troop
withdrawal, without
possible chaos and instability.
·
Stabilization of
Afghanistan and a decrease
in danger to troops now present can be accomplished by a halt in
offensive
operations, and attacking the economic underpinnings of the insurgency. This
can
be accomplished for 5% - 10 %
of the present cost of military operations per year, for a
duration of 2 years, or about $3.7 billion per year. This legislation must be passed within
2 months. Preparations for food
and blanket drops should begin immediately, especially for the north,
should
the winter turn harsh and mass starvation threaten
again. Draft legislation at
http://jobsforafghans.org/Legislation.html
·
Our plan was accepted by
the UN Assistance Mission for Afghanistan
(UNAMA) in
meetings in Kabul. UNAMA has authored the
document "The Afghan New Deal" which largely mirrors our policy
prescriptions. The
document states: "UNAMA SER is of the view that one of the best means
of
tackling the growing insurgency in the southeast is to put in place a
massive
public works programme, employing tens of
thousands
of fighting age males during the fighting season."" We
contend
that this is true
year-round. [
Copy of internal UN document posted at http://jobsforafghans.org/newdeal.pdf
]
·
Our fact-finding mission
this summer consisted of
meetings with ISAF command staff (up to rank of major
general,) Afghan and
non-Afghan non-governmental organizations (NGOs,) Afghan government
ministries,
Canadian Embassy staff, the ambassador of Norway, NGO field workers,
cash-for-work worksite supervisors at a CARE International project
funded by
USAID, journalists both foreign and Afghan, and former employees of
USAID. Contact information can be
provided. Most importantly, we had
interviews with ordinary, unemployed Afghans who gather in the squares
of Kabul
by the thousands waiting to be hired for day labor, in order to sense
the mood
of the street. [ see documentary, short version at
http://current.com/items/91424519_afghan-exit-strategy-winning-with-jobs-not-guns-filmed-in-kabul.htm
]
Why
it
Will Work
·
The Taliban is
politically unpopular and
there is near-universal dislike of its extremist ideology, However,
Taliban
recruitment is successful as a result of 40% unemployment and the
Taliban's
willingness and ability to pay $8 to $10 a day to insurgent fighters,
now
called the "Ten Dollar Taliban" by some soldiers. General
Karl
Eikenberry, former commander of U.S.
forces in Afghanistan,
told the House Armed Services Committee in 2007 "Much of the enemy
force
is drawn from the ranks of unemployed men looking for wages to support
their
families." Eight full years
after the occupation
began, there is hunger and starvation across the country, including in
Kabul. According to UN
estimates, 35% of Afghans are malnourished (2009 World Bank Interim
Strategy
Note.) 39% of children are
underweight. 1
out of 5 infants dies before the age of five. [Ten Dollar
Taliban:
"Afghans move toward reconciliation with Taliban," USA Today 8/24/2009 ]
·
Estimates of the
proportion of fighters who do not
subscribe to the Taliban's ideology but fight only for the wage range
from 70%
to 90%.
Projects to employ these men at
$7 per day can be implemented on a large scale
which
would focus on water infrastructure, which remains damaged from war and
is
critical to agriculture. These are
labor-intensive projects such as canal –clearing, requiring little in
heavy equipment and only local supervision. Another
project
is the improvement of the vast network
of dirt roads with gravel. Another
would be the repair and replacement of the hundreds of miles of open
sewers in
major cities.
·
The effect on security of
announcing and
implementing these programs will be visible immediately.
As
a kinship culture, word travels quickly across Afghanistan, and
decisions on whether or not to join the Taliban will be postponed.
·
This program is not
intended as a sustainable model
of development, but as a stop-gap measure
to prevent
further disintegration into chaos. George
C.
Marshall, winner
of the Nobel Peace Prize and author of the Marshall Plan, said of
post-World
War II Europe: “The patient sinks while the doctors deliberate.”
·
Almost all of the
supervisory personnel for these
projects can be Afghan,
thus obviating the need for international civilian personnel to be put
at risk
in the field.
·
Successful
cash-for-work hiring projects, supervised by Afghans, have already been
demonstrated in various parts of the country. Such
projects have in common a labor-intensive capital-to-labor input ratio. The challenge is to go "big enough
and fast enough" with such programs to constitute the equivalent of
positive, economic "shock and awe."
·
Concurrently, programs
should be put into place in
the south, which will allow farmers to grow something other than
poppies. Most farmers would rather
be growing something
else, as U.S. policy can change in a moment toward the destruction of
poppy
fields.
·
The
proposed legislation represents a new U.S. strategy direction in
Afghanistan, which
places emphasis on the most immediate driver of the insurgency: the
failed
reconstruction. Pockets of new
wealth have accumulated, but for the vast majority of Afghans living
conditions
are miserable and existence is hand-to-mouth, including literal
starvation. The legislation will
implement cash-for-work projects for the poorest, most at-risk Afghans,
for a duration of two years.
This will:
·
- halt and reverse the
Taliban's recruiting success based
on economic conditions
·
-
give the
informal economy "breathing room" to develop, assisted by the small
capital formation which will result from the injection of wages into
the economy
The projects will meet
strict criteria for
efficiency and accountability, described in the legislation. It
proposes
that the newly established
Special Inspector General for the Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)
play a
role in the oversight and monitoring of these projects.
.The
administrative conduits for these projects shall be the highly regarded
National Solidarity Program (NSP) of the Ministry of Rural
Rehabilitation and
Development, which has established 22,000 Community Development
Councils. These are committees at the
village
level created to evaluate projects for true benefit to the community. Members of these councils include many
women. The other conduit for
project funds, subject to new guidelines, would be USAID.
According
to
Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, before any higher development takes place,
first
must come food and basic shelter from the elements in the winter. The litany of needs in
Afghanistan, improvement
of local governance, judicial systems, professionalization of police
and
security forces, are all important, but first people must be able to
eat, or revolution and insurgency will result. This basic need is
not being met in Afghanstan. The Afghan
Marshall Plan
Project believes the Afghan people themselves can be our most important
ally in
the struggle against Islamist extremism, which does not represent the
majority
of Afghans.
International
law
places the onus on an
occupying power to insure the basic food needs of a population. Article
55 of the Geneva Convention states: "To the fullest
extent of the means available to it, the Occupying Power has the duty
of ensuring
the food and medical supplies of the population; it should, in
particular,
bring in the necessary foodstuffs, medical stores and other articles if
the
resources of the occupied territory are inadequate."
DRAFT LEGISLATION AT: www.jobsforafghans.org/Legislation.html
WHITE PAPER AT:
http://jobsforafghans.org/WhitePaper.pdf
EMAIL CONTACT: ralphlopez2008@gmail.com